It don’t smell right to me
Monday, August 30th, 2010What’s keeping unemployment high? It’s “uncertainty” with regard to government tax and economic policy. Business would like to hire people, really. It’s just that everyone’s worried about the fate of the estate tax and corporate tax rates and the fate of Bush’s tax cuts. (Which could expire on everyone! Have you seen legislation that preserves it even for the middle-class?) On top of that, “Obamacare” has businesses running scared and unwilling to hire the people they so desperately want to hire.
Or so the Right tells us.
Now, I’m not an economist. I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. But I know the distinctive aroma of bullshit when it wafts my way.
First off, the economy tanked well before any of the above items were factors. And actually, the economy has lost fewer and fewer jobs since they did appear.
Second, none of this BS alters the general rule: If a business can sell more widgets than it currently makes, it will expand and hire. If the demand isn’t there, it won’t. And right now the demand isn’t there because people are out of work or afraid that they might soon be. Feedback loop. The more people are unemployed, the less demand there is; the less demand there is, the more people are unemployed. The fed can lower interest rates and make sure capital is cheap for businesses who would like to expand, but if demand isn’t there it doesn’t matter if the interest rate is zero–they won’t expand.
How did the feedback loop start? It started when the housing market and the financial sector tanked. People woke up and realized that their nest eggs–their homes and their 401ks–had lost a hell of a lot of value. They responded by spending less money. Spending less money means businesses start letting people go–which of course causes people to spend even less money than before. Rinse, repeat.
Finally, our anemic stimulus spending has given us an anemic recovery.
They’re going to tell you that we’re in this fix because we have such a high deficit and debt. Or because businesses are scared of healthcare reform. But don’t you smell something? I do.
