Lots of moderate voters don’t like the idea of recalls. Even ones who support Democrats like president Obama. They apparently believe that it’s wrong to force a recall election on someone unless they’re guilty of gross malfeasance or criminal activity. Or something. And so they voted for Walker.
I credit Connie for bringing this to my attention. I dismissed it at first, saying it sounded like TV talking head bullshit, something pundits just make up so they have something to say. But the more I think about it the more I’m sure it must be right. Exit polls clearly indicate a lot of Obama supporters voted for Walker. They weren’t voting against Barrett or for Walker so much as voting against the recall itself.
It’s a shame that Wisconsin progressives couldn’t have waited five months and then took back both the Assembly and the Senate. They would have denied Walker his pseudo-mandate and channeled a lot of energy into reelecting president Obama, too. Think about it. Instead of “Walker victorious!” headlines in June we could have had “Walker rebuked!” headlines in November–with the same election results. He’d still be governor and we’d have gained ground in the legislature, but the meaning of it would have been totally different. Instead of a mandate to continue his wrongheaded policies, he’d be chastened and forced to moderate them.
And that’s the end of my recriminations on the subject. There’s no necessity to pummel deceased equines.
But for those of you who think the president should have done more, should have inserted himself into the situation and campaigned hard for Barrett, correct yourself. He was right not to do so. Support for him did not translate into support for the recall effort. And had he been conspicuously campaigning for it when it went down in flames it would have pretty credibly been framed as an indictment of the president himself. Not a good tone to set in a battleground state with his reelection only months away.
For those who want to blame the Koch brothers, I get it. I despise their politics. I am repulsed by the supreme court ruling which allows them to flood the political system with their insane wealth. But I don’t really believe it affected the outcome of this one very much.
For those who want to make a big deal about the fact that news organizations called the election for Walker when some Milwaukeeans were still in line to vote, I get that too. What they did was wrong on a number of levels and we should make sure they don’t do that in the future. But, again, I don’t believe it affected the outcome.
Finally, I hate to get all I-told-you-so about it but I wrote the previous blog entry several days before the election and scheduled it to appear automatically on election night. Such was my confidence in the governor’s survival. I was of course prepared to follow it up with a “Dewey Defeats Truman” post. In fact, I would love to have written that. But as it turns out I wrote this post instead.
I agree with your assessment of the recall results. The “progressives” who were against the recall on principle should have stayed home, though, rather than putting their votes behind a governor insistent on imposing his radical adgenda on the state. Just my two cents.
The “progressives” who were against the recall mostly voted and voted for the Democrat as polls show. In fact about 86% of those who voted, voted the same way as the 2010 election. Wisconsin citizens prefer Walker. I do thank the left in Wisconsin for truly making Walker a rock star to the country and revving up the conservatives in the State. Six months is not that far away…
Wisconsin citizens prefer Walker.
Well, sure. But it’s pretty clear that what decided this recall was the fact that a lot of moderate, non-ideological people simply disliked recall elections. They don’t “prefer Walker” in any meaningful sense. You can tell that by the way they intend to vote for Obama in November.
I do thank the left in Wisconsin for truly making Walker a rock star to the country and revving up the conservatives in the State.
Sad but true.
Six months is not that far away
Meaning, what? Wisconsin is going to vote for Romney? Good luck with that.
I understand that it’s human nature to want to rationalize away the loss but it ultimately came down to ideology. The vast majority of the people understood that taking away collective bargaining rights from state employees was good for Wisconsin and great for the Wisconsin tax payer. The unions with their obstinacy destroyed themselves. Plus, when people so how those morons acted in Madison for all those months it just strengthened the resolve to stick it back at them. It had nothing to do with disliking recall elections but go ahead and believe that. Ironically, when the actual election occurred you would never have known that collective bargaining was even an issue. You’re not going to win many elections with a “war on women” focus.
it ultimately came down to ideology. The vast majority of the people understood that taking away collective bargaining rights from state employees was good for Wisconsin
Do you know of any polling data to back up this claim? I have some that indicates even Obama supporters (surely people who would not be ideologically close to Walker and his policies) voted for Walker. Why would they do that? Plausible explanation is in the graph above: they don’t like recalls for anything other than “misconduct,” not policy differences. Again, these are actual data. What do you have to support your position?
The unions with their obstinacy destroyed themselves.
Yeah, that could be.
Ironically, when the actual election occurred you would never have known that collective bargaining was even an issue.
I found that weird, too.
You’re not going to win many elections with a “war on women” focus.
I don’t know if it’s an effective campaign strategy or not, but the issue has already spoken for itself. While the GOP is shouting “jobs, jobs, jobs!” Republican governors and state legislators have introduced more legislation to restrict abortion rights than ever before in history. They’re even trying to defund Planned Parenthood, the largest provider of women’s health care in the nation. Nationally they killed the bill which would allow women victims of discrimination access to federal courts. The number two guy running for the GOP nomination is on record as saying contraception is “not OK.” Taken together, I think this is the reason Romney isn’t polling well with women, and probably will be a key factor in Obama’s reelection. It isn’t, as Reince Priebus intimated, a fabricated issue. It’s real. And Democrats didn’t do it to you; you did it yourselves. States went red last cycle and they overreached, thinking it was a mandate to enact their most extreme policies.
The best evidence I have is the fact that Act 10 was never used as an election issue even though it was the catalyst for the recall. This tells me that Barrett’s handlers understood through their own internal polling that reigning in state employee benefits was popular with the people, otherwise they would have used this issue exclusively as a campaign strategy. This seems to be much more plausible explanation. People vote with their pocketbooks not some pie in the sky notion about their distaste for recall elections, though this may have played a very small role with some moderates.
Encouraging abortions and having others pay for your contraception doesn’t sound very pro-woman to me. Matter of fact it sounds very pro-male as it allows men to use women for sex without any commitment or accountability. You better hope Obama has more than that to run on.
“The best evidence I have is the fact that Act 10 was never used as an election issue even though it was the catalyst for the recall. This tells me that Barrett’s handlers understood through their own internal polling that reigning in state employee benefits was popular with the people, otherwise they would have used this issue exclusively as a campaign strategy.”
It’s indirect, but ok. I’ll buy that for a nickel. But you’re conflating issues here–something Wisconsin Republicans have been doing since the bill was originally taken up by the legislature. “Reigning in state employee benefits” wouldn’t have resulted in a recall. Doing away with bargaining rights–essentially destroying the union–is what upset everyone. And, as Walker himself admitted before congress, that had no fiscal impact on the state. It was just a way–again as he himself has admitted on tape–to divide public and private unions for the purpose of creating a “right to work” state. Dismantling unions will mean that the biggest Democratic fund raising and GOTV organizations will be no more. And this will become a red state. This was the purpose of doing away with bargaining rights. It was a political, not a budgetary, issue.
What’s your problem with contraception? You’re an observant Catholic? Well, nobody’s forcing you to use it. Nobody’s forcing churches to provide it. But if your church wants to run a business or a non-profit and employ people other than Catholics it has to abide by a lot of federal and state labor and insurance regulations–just like everyone else does. The fact that Obama was willing to even compromise on it is more than the issue deserved, in my opinion.
But as I said, I don’t know if the “war on women” thing is a good campaign strategy, but the reality behind the slogan is one that isn’t working well for your party right now. Thus whether anyone uses it as an issue against Republicans or not, damage to your candidates has already been done–and done by they themselves.