Posted by scott on May 7th, 2008
Here’s a fun game over at CNN.com. It’s a calculator in which you can adjust sliders corresponding to all six remaining Democratic primary contests as well as one for the remaining superdelegates. Play around with it. I did and I learned something stunning: if senator Clinton were to win every single remaining contest by 55-45 and also took superdelegates by a corresponding amount, Obama would still win. That’s how far be hind she is. One has to suspect that she’s remaining in the race primarily in case Obama self-destructs so badly that he literally has to withdraw from the race. She. Can’t. Win.
More than her refusal to admit this and drop out, what really bothers me is the media. For months on end we’ve all listened to pundits, analysts and other talking heads tell us that this unusually long primary race is terrible for the Democrats in November. We’ve heard endlessly that a “decisive” contest is just around the corner–and then after the results come in exactly as predicted, told yet again that the race will continue just as it did before. The worst, however, is the endless parade of media Jeremiads who seemingly never tire of wringing their hands over how damaging this all is to the Democratic party.
If I had to predict it, I’d say we’re in for a decisive Democratic win in November. And it’s not just because the Current Occupant–the most unpopular president in history–has an R after his name. It’s because the Democratic primary race has gone on so long.
One of the things you often hear said is that the unusually long contest is causing these candidate to spend lots of money that they would otherwise use to beat McSame in November. I guess this is true, as far as it goes, but I don’t think anybody is actually predicting that the Democrat is going to be outspent. So if it’s universally accepted that we’re going to raise and spend more money than they are in spite of the way the primary has occurred, why the worrying?
Another thing you often hear these doomsayers telling you is that Democrats are so gosh-darned divided that no matter who wins a significant number of them will stay home or even cross party lines in November. I think Democrats will unite quite nicely behind senator Obama. But more than that, Democratic primary races have seen record turnout and record voter registrations. For the first time in who knows how long Democrats other than ones who live in Iowa or New Hampshire actually got to participate in this decision! And it’s all happening precisely because of the long primary campaign season.
Finally, a note to Clinton supporters. First, your candidate cannot win the primary election. Second, I’m not sure why you’ve been supporting her in recent months, as she’s clearly the weaker of the two come November. As I’ve said before, senator Clinton can do the one thing that John McCain cannot: unite the Republican party. The reasons for this are many and varied–and some of them are frankly unfair and rooted in sexism–but the fact still remains.
Prediction: Clinton stays in the race until the nominee is won. That will happen at least by mid-June. All of the primary contests will be over and superdelegates will have nothing more to wait for or hide behind. The majority of them will go for Obama, making him the nominee.
And that is her best case scenario at this point. Other than Obama being found in bed with a dead teenage boy–and Osama bin Laden.
Tags: 2008, clinton, election, mccain, media, obama, Politics | 10 Comments »